This blog/website is dedicated to the education and sophistication of all mortgage loan borrowers through-out our great nation. The more a borrower is informed about the loan process and how mortgage rates are developed, the better everyone's economic position will be.
Kevin L. Smith
Loan Consultant


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Friday, June 25, 2010

Mortgage Rates Move Off Record Lows as Rally Exhausts

Mortgage rates rallied to new all-time lows yesterday following a few disappointing housing headlines. While it has been no secret to housing industry professionals, the post-homebuyer tax credit hangover appears to have caught some folks on Wall Street off-guard. Stocks sold off, interest rates rallied and lender rate sheets were the most aggressive we've ever seen them. I locked all the loans in my pipeline.


We've had a great run over the past few days. MBS prices hit new all-time highs yesterday. Loan pricing was the most aggressive we've ever seen it. Lenders were practically begging for borrowers to lock their loans. Unfortunately the rally lost some steam today. Nothing seems to have caused it, but lenders repriced for the worse and mortgage rates increased this afternoon. I think the best way to describe the move higher is "rally exhaustion". Prices were just too high and profits were taken.

Reports from fellow mortgage professionals indicate lender rate sheets to be worse than yesterday after lenders repriced for the worse today. Higher mortgage borrowing costs will most noticeable via an increase in discount points. The par 30 year conventional rate mortgage remains in the 4.375% to 4.625% range for well qualified consumers. To secure a par interest rate on a conventional mortgage you must have a FICO credit score of 740 or higher, a loan to value at 80% or less and pay all closing costs including an estimated one point loan origination/discount/broker fee. If you plan to stay in your home for less than 3 years, you should consider a no cost refinance which offers a rate of around 4.875% today. You pay no upfront fees and no fees are rolled into the mortgage. The loan originator pays your closing costs for you by giving you a higher interest rate which pays the loan originator on the back side.

Mortgage rates are ridiculously aggressive right now. I favor locking all loans.

Rate Lock Advisory - Friday Jun. 25th (Friday's bond market has opened flat after this morning's economic data brought no significant surprises)


Rate Lock Advisory - Friday Jun. 25th

Friday's bond market has opened flat after this morning's economic data brought no significant surprises. The stock markets are also relatively calm with the Dow down 4 points and the Nasdaq down 3 points. The bond market is nearly unchanged from yesterday's close, but we will still likely see an increase of approximately .125 of a discount point in this morning's mortgage rates due to weakness late yesterday.

Yesterday's 7-year Treasury Note auction actually went fairly well, especially when compared to Wednesday's 5-year sale. However, the bond market wasn't too impressed and we saw some lenders revise rates upward yesterday afternoon. Many may have chosen to reflect that revision in today's rates, but overall we should see a slight increase compared to yesterday's morning rates.

There were two economic reports posted this morning, but neither is considered highly important. The first was the final reading to the 1st Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) that came in at 2.7% annual rate of growth. This was a downward revision from the previous estimate, which is good news for bonds and mortgage rates. It means that the economy did not grow as much as previously thought during the first three months of the year. Unfortunately, this data is too old to have much influence on the markets and mortgage rates or we would have likely seen an improvement in today's rates.

The second report of the day was the University of Michigan's revision to their Index of Consumer Sentiment. It revealed a reading of 76.0, up from the preliminary reading of 75.5. That means surveyed consumers were a little more optimistic about their own financial situations than they were earlier this month and they may be slightly more willing to make large purchases in the near future. Ideally, a downward revision would have been preferred, but it was not enough of a change to affect this morning's mortgage rates.

Next week is busy with relevant economic reports scheduled for release every day except Wednesday. Monday does bring us some fairly important data when May's Personal Income and Outlay figures will be posted. The week closes with the almighty Employment report Friday, but there is some fairly important reports being released in between. Look for more details on next week's events in Sunday's weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Monday, June 14, 2010

Rate Lock Advisory - Monday Jun. 14th


Monday's bond market has opened in negative territory following a relatively strong opening in stocks. The stock markets are kicking the week off with the Dow up 63 points and the Nasdaq up 24 points. The bond market is currently down 20/32, but we will likely still see a slight improvement in this morning's mortgage rates due to strength late Friday.

There is no relevant economic data being posted today or tomorrow, so look for any further changes in mortgage rates to come as a result of changes in the stock markets. If the stock markets remain near current levels, mortgage rates should follow suit. If the major stock indexes extend their current gains, mortgage rates could move higher this afternoon and tomorrow.

The rest of the week is fairly busy with five economic reports scheduled for release, but they are all being posted over two days. Two of the five are considered to be of high importance to the markets and mortgage rates. The remaining three are of interest to the markets but likely will not cause a large change in mortgage rates unless they vary greatly from forecasts.

Wednesday brings us the release of three reports that are relevant to mortgage rates. The day's reports are a broad spectrum of data ranging from housing figures to manufacturing output to an important inflation reading. Their importance to the markets also is a wide variety. The first report of the day is May's Housing Starts that tracks starts of new home projects. The second is May's Producer Price Index (PPI) that gives us a very important measurement of inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. And the third is May's Industrial Production that helps us track manufacturing sector strength.

Overall, look for Wednesday to be the biggest day of the week. Not just because it brings the release of three of the five reports, but also because it brings us the PPI that is considered to be a key inflation reading. Thursday is also very important with the CPI being posted, so look for the most movement in rates during the middle part of the week.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Rate Lock Advisory - Wednesday May. 19th

Wednesday's bond market initially opened in negative territory but has since erased those gains as stock prices started to fall. The stock markets are in selling mode again with the Dow down 122 points and the Nasdaq down 27 points. The bond market is currently up 2/32, which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

Today's important inflation data gave us favorable results. The Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.1% last month when it was expected to rise slightly. Even better news was the core data reading that showed no change from March when it was expected to rise slightly. This means that inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy were lighter than thought. That is good news for rates because it makes long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds more attractive to investors.

Later today, the minutes from the last FOMC meeting will be released. Market participants will be looking at how Fed members voted during the last meeting and any comments about inflation concerns in the economy. The goal is to form opinions about when the Fed may make a move to key short-term interest rates. The minutes will be released at 2:00 PM ET, so if there is a market reaction to them it will be evident during afternoon trading.

Tomorrow brings us the last relevant economic data of the week when April's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) are posted at 10:00 AM ET. This Conference Board report attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months. It is expected to show a 0.2% increase from March's reading, meaning that economic activity is likely rise slightly during the next few months. A decline would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates, while a larger increase could cause mortgage rates to inch higher tomorrow.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Rate Lock Advisory - Monday May. 17th


Monday's bond market has opened up slightly following a calm open in stocks. The major stock indexes are mixed with the Dow down 14 points and the Nasdaq up 2 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32, which should keep this morning's mortgage rates at Friday's levels.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. As long as the stock markets remain near current levels, the bond market and mortgage rates will likely follow suit today. If they move much higher or lower than where they are this morning, bond prices will probably move in the opposite direction. If stocks rise, look for upward revisions to rates later today. If they fall form current levels, mortgage pricing may revise lower this afternoon.

The first report of the week is April's Producer Price Index (PPI) early tomorrow morning, which helps us measure inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. If this report reveals weaker than expected readings, indicating inflation is not a concern at the producer level, we should see the bond and stock markets rally. The overall index is expected to show an increase of 0.1%, while the core data that excludes more volatile food and energy prices is also expected to rise 0.1%. No change or a decline in the core data would be ideal for mortgage shoppers because inflation is the number one nemesis for long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds.

April's Housing Starts will also be posted early tomorrow morning, but is much less important than the PPI readings are. This data measures housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand by tracking new permits and actual starts of new home construction. It is expected to show an increase in new starts from March's readings. Since this report is not considered to be of high importance to the bond market, it likely will have little impact on mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts and the PPI matches forecasts.

Overall, it appears it is going to be another active week for the mortgage market. We have two inflation readings that are very important to the bond market the middle part of the week. Stock market volatility will likely also affect bond trading again this week, so we may see movement in rates several days. Wednesday's CPI is the single most important report of the week, but tomorrow's PPI can also heavily influence the bond market.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Friday, May 14, 2010

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would....

Rate Lock Advisory - Friday May. 14th



Friday's bond market has opened up sharply following another round of selling in stocks. The stock markets are showing sizable losses with the Dow down 180 points and the Nasdaq down 52 points. The bond market is currently up 17/32, which will likely improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .250 - .375 of a discount point.

Due to the stock selling, today's economic data did not influence bond trading and mortgage rates as it was expected to do. The data itself was unfavorable for bonds and rates, but the market seems to be more interested in the stock weakness that has shifted funds away from stocks and into bonds.

The first piece of today's three releases was April's Retail Sales. The Commerce Department said that sales at retail level establishments rose 0.4% last month. This was twice the increase of 0.2% that was expected, meaning consumers spent more than thought. However, if more volatile auto-related sales are excluded, they would have matched forecasts. This has helped prevent the bond market from reacting negatively to the data, but the stock selling has taken center stage anyhow.

The second report of the day was April's Industrial Production. It showed that production at U.S. factories, mines and utilities rose 0.8%. That matched forecasts, meaning that industrial production did not exceed expectations. The sizable gain is good news for the economy and bad news for bonds, but this data is much less important to the markets than the Retail Sales data is. Therefore, it also has had little impact on today's mortgage pricing.

The last report of the week was May's preliminary reading to the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment. It showed a reading of 73.3, indicating that consumers were more optimistic about their own financial situations this month than they were last month. Again, as with the earlier two reports, this data has not affected mortgage rates this morning.

Next week brings us the release of a several relevant reports, including two key inflation readings. Nothing of importance is scheduled for release Monday and the most important data will be released mid-week. Look for more details on next week's events in Sunday's weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Rate Lock Advisory - Tuesday May. 11th

Tuesday's bond market has opened relatively flat considering the past few trading sessions. The stock markets are showing early losses with the Dow down 32 points and the Nasdaq down 7 points. The bond market is currently up 2/32, but I don't believe this will be enough to cause much change to mortgage rates.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. This will leave the bond market and mortgage rates subject to stock market movements again. As long as the major stock indexes remain near current levels, I suspect that mortgage rates will follow suit. However, afternoon strength or selling in stocks could make bonds less or more appealing to investors and lead to afternoon changes in mortgage rates.

Tomorrow does bring us some economic data, but it is the week's least important news. March's Goods and Services Trade Balance report will be released early tomorrow morning, giving us the size of the U.S. trade deficit. It is expected to show a $40.5 billion trade deficit. This report likely will have little impact on tomorrow's mortgage rates unless it shows a significant variance between forecasts and its actual results.

10-year Treasury Notes will be sold tomorrow and could impact bond prices and mortgage rates. The 30-year Bond sale will take place Thursday. Results of the auctions will be posted at 1:30 PM ET each day. If they are met with a strong demand from investors, we could see bond prices rise enough during afternoon trading to cause downward revisions to mortgage rates. However, lackluster bidding in the sale could lead to higher mortgage pricing those afternoons.

The remaining three economic reports will be released Friday morning. This is when we will get April's Retail Sales data (highly important), April's Industrial Production (moderately important) and May's University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (moderately important).

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Sunday, May 9, 2010

Friday will Lead to a Great Week - Rate Lock Advisory - Friday May. 7th

Friday's bond market has opened in negative territory after this morning's employment data gave us mixed results. The stock markets are experiencing quite a bit of volatility this morning fluctuating between positive and negative ground. They initially opened with respectable gains after yesterday's 347-point drop in the Dow, but quickly gave them up before moving higher yet again. They are currently well in negative territory with the Dow down 91 points and the Nasdaq down 41 points.

The bond market initially appeared to be ready to give back a good part of yesterday's gains. It traded in negative ground overnight and even after this morning's data was posted it remained there. However, it seems to be slowly erasing these losses as the morning trading session continues. After being down 14/32 earlier, it is currently down only 5/32. We will still likely see an improvement of approximately .250 - .375 of a discount point in this morning's mortgage rates though due to strength late yesterday as stocks slid. If the stock markets continue to fall, bonds should improve enough to possibly revise mortgage rates lower this afternoon.

The Labor Department was in the spotlight again this morning when they posted April's employment statistics. They announced that the unemployment rate rose to 9.9% last month when it was expected to remain at 9.7%. This was the part of the report that was good for bonds and mortgage rates. The bad news came in the payroll numbers that showed that 290,000 jobs were added to the economy during the month that was the largest monthly addition since March 2006. Analysts had forecasted only 187,000 new jobs, indicating that the employment sector was hiring more than thought. Today's report also revealed an upward revision of 68,000 jobs to March's previously announced total, meaning that 573,000 new payrolls have been added to the economy so far this year.

Overall, the data supports both theories about the strength and recovery of the economy. On one hand, the unemployment rate nearly touched the 10.0% benchmark that the Fed itself has indicated is a possibility. That hints that there may be room for the figure to move even higher. But, the job growth is fairly impressive and puts us on a pace for strong job growth for the year if the current rate continues. During the first few minutes of trading it seemed that the markets couldn't quite decide if this data is worth adding or selling holdings. Now it seems that with the overseas financial crisis still looming, we could see more weakness in stocks today. Holding out for an improvement to rates later today may be a safe bet, but I still think that we are due for a correction in bonds that would bring mortgage rates off their current lows. So, please proceed cautiously if still willing to gamble on mortgage rates.

Next week is relatively active with a handful of relevant economic reports schedule and two important Treasury auctions set. There is no relevant data scheduled for release Monday or Tuesday, so I am expecting any weekend news on the financial situations overseas and the stock markets to drive bond trading and mortgage rates those days. Look for details on next week's relevant events in Sunday's weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Thursday, May 6, 2010

Rate Lock Advisory - Thursday May. 6th

Thursday's bond market has opened in positive territory yet again after this morning's economic data gave us favorable results and the stock markets continued their downward move. The Dow is currently down 72 points while the Nasdaq has fallen 25 points. The bond market is currently up 6/32, which should improve this morning's mortgage rates slightly.

The Labor Department said this morning that the 1st quarter employee productivity rose at a 3.6% annual rate. This was higher than expected, meaning workers were more productive than thought. The employee costs portion of the data showed a larger than forecasted decline, indicating that wages were not rising rapidly. Both of these readings were good news for bonds and mortgage rates, but the biggest factor in this morning's trading was another round of stock losses.





The Labor Department also gave us last week's unemployment figures. They announced that 444,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, slightly exceeding forecasts. However, this data does not carry the significance to affect mortgage rates with just a slight variance from expectations.

Tomorrow brings us the release of the almighty monthly Employment report, giving us April's employment statistics. This data has the importance to cause a huge rally or major sell-off in the bond market and large changes in mortgage rates.

The ideal situation for the bond and mortgage markets would be an increase in the unemployment rate and a much smaller number of payrolls added to the economy during the month than was expected. Current forecasts are calling for the unemployment rate to remain at 9.7% and that approximately 187,000 jobs were added to the economy during the month. Just how much of an improvement or worsening in rates depends on how much variance there is between forecasts and actual readings. This could turn out to be a wonderful day in the mortgage market, but it also carries risks of seeing mortgage rates move higher if the Labor Department posts stronger than expected readings.

The recent bond rally has been wonderful for mortgage shoppers, but I have concerns as to whether it can continue much longer. My issue is that the rally has been fueled much more by stock weakness than weak economic data. I believe there is still room for the stock markets to fall, but we have seen a significant improvement in bonds from their recent lows. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note actually crossed over 4.00% just last month but currently stands at 3.48%. And we must keep in mind that rates usually spike higher much quicker than they fall. In other words, it will not take much bad news for the bond market to start reversing course and give back some of its recent gains.

Tomorrow's data certainly has the importance to do this and to do it quickly. It is my opinion that if tomorrow's data shows stronger than expected results that we will see the bond market go into selling mode, driving mortgage rates higher. I also believe that it will take much weaker than forecasted results for the bond market and mortgage rates to greatly improve. I also think it is going to take a lot for the bond market to react favorably to the data but just a little surprise to create a negative reaction. Accordingly, I strongly recommend proceeding with caution into tomorrow if still floating an interest rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Wednesday, May 5, 2010

Mortgage Rates Inch Lower as Nervous Investors Seek Safety


Mortgage rates fell a few more basis points yesterday as global economic concerns continue to lead nervous investors to re-allocate their funds into risk free benchmark Treasury debt. This "flight to safety" helped mortgage-backed securities prices tick higher which has allowed lenders to offer progressively lower consumer borrowing costs over the last four days.

A flight to safety happens when investors are nervous about owning risky assets like stocks, but do not want to miss out on earning a return on their funds, so they allocate money into risk-free U.S Treasury debt to provide a safe-haven AND an investment return. To remind readers, as benchmark Treasury yields fall, prices of mortgage-backed securities move higher, which allows lenders to offer lower mortgage rates. As Treasury yields rise, mortgage-backed security prices are led lower, which forces lenders to push mortgage rates higher.

The flight to quality continues to move interest rates. Although lenders have been unable to move mortgage rates lower in step with benchmark Treasury yields, lender rate sheets did improve again today. The par 30 year conventional rate mortgage remains in the 4.875% to 5.125% range with a few more lenders offering 4.75% to well-qualified consumers. To secure a par interest rate on a conventional mortgage you must have a FICO credit score of 740 or higher, a loan to value at 80% or less and pay all closing costs including an estimated one point loan origination/discount/broker fee. If you have lower FICO scores or higher loan to values, you should consider a government loan which offers the same rates as conventional with higher costs.

We have seen several days in a row of improving lender pricing thanks to the sovereign debt concerns with Greece and other European countries. At some point this is going to come to a conclusion which will probably result in the unwinding of the “flight to safety” trade that has benefited mortgage rates recently. Once that happens, we will see increases in mortgage rates. I continue to favor locking all loans closing within 30 days as I feel rates have very little room to continue to improve and the likelihood of a correction which increases rates is growing. Remember lenders push rates higher much faster than they let them fall. In addition, we have the Employment Situation report coming out on Friday. This is one of the most influential economic releases on the schedule and it can impact the markets in a big way… especially if it is better than expected. There is much risk in floating and very little to gain. It is always better to have locked when you should have floated than to have floated when you should have locked.

Rate Lock Advisory - Wednesday May. 5th - Happy Cinco de Mayo


Wednesday's bond market has opened in positive territory again following more weakness in stocks. The stock markets are extending yesterday's losses, but to a much lesser degree. The Dow is currently down 40 points and the Nasdaq down 18 points. The bond market is currently up 7/32, which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .250 - .375 of a discount point.

There is no relevant data scheduled for release today, so any afternoon revisions to mortgage rates will likely come from movements in stocks. If the stock markets move into positive territory, we may see bonds fall and mortgage rates move higher. If the major stock indexes move lower, afternoon improvements to rates may follow.

The Labor Department will release its 1st Quarter Productivity and Costs data early tomorrow morning. This information helps us measure employee productivity in the workplace. High levels of productivity help allow low-inflationary economic growth. If employee productivity is rapidly rising, the bond market should react favorably. However, a decrease could cause bond prices to drop and mortgage rates to rise tomorrow morning. It is expected to show a 2.4% increase in productivity.

We also will get weekly unemployment figures from the Labor Department early tomorrow. They are expected to say that 440,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This would be a decline from the previous week, but unless we see a large variance from forecasts this data likely will not have much of an influence on tomorrow's mortgage rates.

The big news of the week comes Friday when we will get April's monthly employment numbers. They are expected to show that the unemployment rate stood at 9.7% last month and that 187,000 new jobs were added to the economy. The higher the unemployment rate and the fewer number of jobs added, the better the news for bonds and mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Mortgage Rates Start Week Sideways. Busy Week Ahead


Mortgage rates last week benefited from nervous investor sentiments regarding the fate of Greece and Goldman Sachs. A lack of conviction to own risky stocks heading into the weekend led to a flight to safety rally in benchmark Treasuries which helped mortgage-backed securities and allowed lenders to offer slightly lower mortgage rates.

After bouncing back and forth in a tight range for the entire week, mortgage rates went into the weekend close to their best levels of the month (which really wasn't too different from what we have been seeing over the past 10 days.)

Over the weekend, the European Union and Greece announced that an aid package was put together to prevent Greece from defaulting on their national debt. This bailout was expected to “safeguard financial stability in the euro area as a whole”. This news ended up forcing traders to sell a portion of their "flight to safety" positions in Treasuries which pushed MBS prices lower at the open. Almost all of Friday's modest gains have been erased.

We have several economic releases to start the week. First report to hit the news wires comes from the Department of Commerce with the release of Personal Income and Outlays. A stronger consumer benefits the stock market while a weaker consumer benefits the bond market. This report gives us three readings on the health of consumers. The first is personal income which shows the monthly change in income that households receive from all sources. Next is consumer spending, which shows the monthly change in the amount of money consumers are spending on durable and non-durable goods and services. The final reading is the Personal Consumption Expenditure, a preferred read on inflation.

Rate Lock Advisory - Tuesday May. 4th


Tuesday's bond market has opened well in positive territory due significant stock selling. The stock markets are posting large losses with the Dow down 220 points and the Nasdaq down 74 points. This has helped boost bond prices, pushing the bond market up 14/32, which will likely improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point.

Today's only relevant economic news actually gave us unfavorable results. It showed that March's Factory Orders rose 1.3%, greatly exceeding analysts' forecasts. That indicates that the manufacturing sector was stronger than expected and can be considered bad news for bonds. However, the data is pretty much being ignored this morning as bonds have become a safe-haven from the volatility in stocks. If this continues into afternoon hours, I would not be surprised to see a downward revision to mortgage pricing later today.

There is no relevant data scheduled fro release tomorrow, so look for the stock markets to again be a heavy influence on bond trading and mortgage rates. If today's selling in stocks extends to tomorrow, we could see further improvements to mortgage rates. But if the major stock indexes rebound tomorrow, today's improvements to rates may be erased.

The Labor Department will release its 1st Quarter Productivity and Costs data early Thursday morning. This information helps us measure employee productivity in the workplace. High levels of productivity help allow low-inflationary economic growth. If employee productivity is rapidly rising, the bond market should react favorably. However, a decrease could cause bond prices to drop and mortgage rates to rise Thursday morning. It is expected to show a 2.4% increase in productivity.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Debating Bank Reform

Debating Bank Reform












Monday, May 3, 2010

6 biggest mistakes homebuyers make

Buying a home is the biggest purchase most people will ever make, yet many go into it blind. Here are the 6 most common -- and costly -- mistakes homebuyers make.


1. Not knowing your credit score

If you're even toying with the idea of buying a home, you must find out exactly what your FICO score is. If you find it is less than ideal, wage a systematic campaign to raise it. Too many borrowers ignore this step and get surprised when they get interest rate quotes.

Once you've pored over your credit history and corrected any errors, your next step is to pay down revolving debt balances to no more than 30% usage. That will help raise your score significantly.

Why does it matter?

The lower your score, the higher your costs of borrowing. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, for example, charge higher up-front fees to borrowers with credit scores below 740.

For a buyer with a credit score between 680 and 700, the fee comes to 1.5% of the mortgage principal. On a $200,000 mortgage, that adds up to $3,000. Someone with a 740 score pays nothing.

Lower-score borrowers also get saddled with higher interest rates, about 0.4 percentage point more for the below 700 borrower. That costs an extra $62 a month -- $744 a year -- on a $200,000, 30-year, fixed rate loan.


2. Buying a car before a house

Anytime consumers open new credit accounts -- credit card, auto loan, etc. -- their FICO score could drop, according to Craig Watts, a spokesman for Fair Isaac, the creator of FICO scores.

"Hence the admonition to not open other new accounts while your mortgage application is in process," he said.

A big purchase would use up a considerable proportion of a borrower's total credit limit, which results in a drop in the score. Lenders often continue to check credit scores in the weeks before closing.

"The lender will likely slam on the brakes if the applicant's credit scores have suddenly dropped below the minimum required for the requested loan rate," Watts said.


3. Skimping on home inspection

Buying a pig in a poke can cost buyers big bucks -- just when they can least afford it. So It's vital to find all the costly flaws before you buy.

Many homes on the market today are distressed properties -- foreclosures and short sales -- and that only increases the importance of good inspections, according to David Tamny, president of the American Society of Home Inspectors.

"The owners usually didn't have the money to keep up these homes," he said. "There's a lot of deferred maintenance."

A home inspection can find problems with the foundation, electrical, plumbing, roof, attic insulation, and heating and air conditioning. In some states, separate licensed inspectors offer mold or termite inspections.

Often homebuyers, who may be strapped for cash, stint on inspections and look for the cheapest way to go. That can lead to disaster.

"The cost of repairs far exceeds the cost of inspection," said Tamny.


4. No lawyer

Nearly everyone involved in a real estate transaction -- the seller, the buyer's real estate agent, the seller's agent and the mortgage broker -- has a vested interest in getting the deal done because they only get paid when the house is sold. So they may push a deal even if it's not in the best interest of the buyer.

One of the best defenses against making am expensive purchase you'll regret is to hire a real estate attorney -- even in cities where it's not standard practice. These professionals charge flat fees and their advice is objective.

It's nice to have someone on your side.


5. No contingencies

When signing a sales contract, buyers usually have to put up 1% to 3% in "earnest money," which they don't get back if they pull out of the deal except under certain conditions spelled out in the contract.

Sellers try to limit the grounds for canceling, and inexperienced buyers may sign contracts that don't include common exceptions, such as uncovering major problems during the home inspection, failing to obtain financing and failure of the house to appraise.

Failure to obtain financing is common these days because lenders have become very picky; underwriting is very strict.

Even if your mortgage company is still willing to finance your purchase, the house itself may be worth less than you've contracted to pay for it, and the lender will pull its approval.

With residential real estate markets still slow, sellers usually accept contingency clauses, but if they resist, it may be better to rethink the deal. Losing a deposit of $2,000 to $6,000 on a $200,000 home hurts.


6. Not budgeting for insurance

Don't underestimate insurance costs and fail to budget for them.

Many homebuyers don't understand just what is -- and what is not -- covered. Standard policies pay for theft and wind, fire, lightning, hail and explosion damage. Not covered is flooding, earthquake damage or problems caused by neglect of routine maintenance, according to Jeanne Salvatore, spokeswoman for the Insurance Information Institute, an industry-sponsored educational group.

"The most important thing is before you buy a home, find out what it will cost to insure it," she said. "Insurance needs to be calculated into the cost of owning a home. Unlike a mortgage, which you can pay off, you'll be responsible for the insurance costs forever."

For flood insurance, most buyers use the National Flood Insurance Program. Earthquake coverage may be available through a state authority or some private companies.

Depending on location, flood insurance can run into a lot of money. The cost of $250,000 worth of government flood coverage on the building and $100,000 of its contents can go as high as $5,714 in high-risk, coastal areas.

WHAT IS A BULL AND A BEAR MARKET?


In stock trading and investing there are bulls and bears. It sounds dangerous but it isn’t.

You often hear of the market being bullish or bearish. So what is a bull market and what is a bear market?


BULLS AND BEARS IN THE MARKET


A Bull Market

This is when the market showing is confidence. Indicators of confidence are prices going up, market indices like the Nasdaq go up too. Number of shares traded is also high and even the number of companies entering the stock market show that the market is confident.

These are bullish characteristics. If there is a run of bullish days then you may hear the market is a bull market. Technically though a bull market is a rise in value of the market of at least 20%. The huge rise of the Dow and Nasdaq during the tech boom is a good example of a bull market.


A Bear Market


A bear market is the opposite to a bull. If the markets fall by more than 20% then we have entered a bear market. A bear market is a market showing a lack of confidence. Prices hover at the same price then go down, indices fall too and volumes are stagnant. In a bear market people are waiting for the bulls to start driving the prices up again. However, a bear is a very tentative bull or a bull that is asleep.

Rate Lock Advisory - Monday May. 3rd

Monday's bond market has opened in negative territory following early stock strength. The stock markets are starting the week in positive ground after Greece accepted a bailout package that should help stabilize the country's financial system. The Dow is currently up 86 points while the Nasdaq has gained 14 points. The bond market is currently down 11/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point over Friday's morning pricing.

There were two reports released this morning that were relevant to mortgage rates. The first was March's Personal Income & Outlays that showed a 0.3% rise in income and a 0.6% increase in spending. Both of these readings matched forecasts, minimizing its impact on this morning's bond trading and mortgage rates. February's readings were revised higher than previously estimated, but due to the age of that data it also has not influenced today's rates.

The second report of the day was one of the more important releases of the week. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) posted their manufacturing index for April late this morning, announcing a reading of 60.4. This was slightly lower than forecasts but an increase from the previous month. This indicates that more surveyed manufacturers felt business improved during the month than last month. That can be considered negative for bonds, but since the reading did not exceed forecasts, its impact on the markets has been minimal.

March's Factory Orders data will be released at 10:00AM tomorrow, giving us a measure of manufacturing sector strength. It is similar to last week's Durable Goods Orders, except this report includes non-durable goods such as food and clothing. Generally, the market is more concerned with the durable goods orders like refrigerators and electronics than items such as cigarettes and toothpaste. This is why the Durable Goods report usually has more of an impact on the financial markets than the Factory Orders report does. Still, a larger decline than the 0.1% that is expected could push mortgage rates slightly lower. But, a sizable increase in new orders could lead to slightly higher mortgage pricing tomorrow.

Overall, I believe Friday will be the most important day of the week with the employment data being posted. It can easily erase the week's accumulated gains or losses in mortgage rates if it shows any surprises. The middle part of the week will likely be the calmest, but I still suggest proceeding cautiously if still floating an interest rate. This would be a good week to maintain contact with your mortgage professional if you have not locked a rate yet.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Friday, April 30, 2010

Rate Lock Advisory - Friday Apr. 30th

Rate Lock Advisory - Friday Apr. 30th

Friday's bond market has in positive territory after this morning's most important economic data gave us favorable results. The stock markets are also helping to boost bond prices with the Dow down 35 points and the Nasdaq down 15 points. The bond market is currently up 8/32, which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point.

The first of this morning's three economic reports was the most important of all of the week's data. The 1st Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) came in at an annual rate of growth of 3.2%. This was slightly below forecasts, meaning the economy grew at slower pace than thought during the first three months of the year. In addition, a key inflation reading within the data was just below forecasts also. These are fairly good results for the bond market and mortgage rates.

The second report was the 1st Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) that showed a 0.6% increase in employer costs for wages and benefits. This was just above the 0.5% increase that was expected, so this data can be considered negative for bonds. However, it was not enough of a variance to have much of an impact t on this morning's rates.

The last was the University of Michigan's update to their Index of Consumer Sentiment for April. They announced a reading of 72.2, which exceeded forecasts of 71.0. This indicates that surveyed consumers were more confident about their own financial situations than thought, which is believed to mean they are more apt to make large purchases in the near future. Again, bad news for bonds and mortgage pricing, but the most important data of the day was favorable for bonds and had led to this morning's buying.

I would not be surprised to see further stock losses and bond gains before the day ends. It seems the momentum for bonds remains strong and that stocks could be due for another drop. If this is accurate, we could see funds shifted into bonds and mortgage rates move even lower. Accordingly, I am a little less cautious towards mortgage rates than I was earlier in the week.

Next week brings us the release of several relevant reports, including two important ones Monday morning. Early Monday we will get March's Personal Income and Outlays data that will give us a measurement of consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. Later Monday morning, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will post their manufacturing index that tells us manufacturer sentiment about current business conditions. Both can move the bond market enough to affect mortgage rates, so Monday will be a busy day. Look for more details on next week's events in Sunday's weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Thursday, April 29, 2010

Rate Lock Advisory - Thursday Apr. 29th

Rate Lock Advisory - Thursday Apr. 29th


Thursday's bond market has opened flat despite early stock gains. The stock markets are showing sizable gains with the Dow up 110 points and the Nasdaq up 25 points. The bond market is nearly unchanged form yesterday's close, which means we will likely see a slight increase in this morning's rates due to the volatility late yesterday.

The Labor Department gave us today's only semi-relevant economic data when they posted last week's unemployment figures. They said that 448,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. That was close to expectations, so it had practically no impact on this morning's trading or mortgage rates.

Today's 7-year Note auction may impact bond trading and mortgage rates later today. The results of the sale will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, so any reaction will come during afternoon hours. If demand for the notes was strong, we could see bond prices rise and mortgage rates move lower later today. However, a lackluster interest could lead to bond selling and higher mortgage rates.

There are three reports scheduled for release tomorrow morning. The first is the preliminary version of the 1st Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This is arguably the single most important report that we see on a regular basis. The GDP is the sum of all products and services produced in the U.S. and is considered to be the best indicator of economic growth or contraction. I expect this report to cause major movement in the financial markets Friday and therefore the mortgage market also. Analysts are expecting to see an increase in output at an annual rate of 3.3%. A much smaller increase would be good news for mortgage rates. But, a stronger than expected reading would almost certainly cause stock prices to rise and bond prices to fall, leading to higher mortgage rates tomorrow morning.

The second report of the day is the 1st Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI), which tracks employer costs for wages and benefits. This gives us a measurement of wage-inflation. If it shows a large increase, we may see wage inflation concerns cause the bond market to fall and mortgage rates to rise. A smaller than expected increase would be good news for the bond market and mortgage pricing. Current forecasts are showing a rise of 0.5%.

The last is the University of Michigan's update to their Index of Consumer Sentiment for April. This report gives us an indication of consumer sentiment. I don't expect it to have a significant impact on bonds and mortgage pricing unless it varies greatly from forecasts. Current forecasts are calling for an upward revision to push the index to 71.0. This means that surveyed consumers were more optimistic about their own financial situations than they were earlier this month.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

When You Think You Have Run Short On Space In Your Home

A 24-Room Apartment in 344 Square Feet

Hong Kong architect Gary Chang, has managed to turn his tiny apartment into a mansion of sorts, comprising more than 20 rooms. The innovation he says could improve the lives of low income people around the world. Courtesy of Reuters.

“lock at the price highs, float at the price lows”

Mortgage rates greatly benefited from headline news yesterday. Around mid-morning we learned that Standard and Poor's had cut Greece's government debt rating all the way down to junk. That is as low as ratings go! Stocks, which have rallied for eight consecutive weeks, sold off sharply on the news. This was a positive for mortgage rates because stock selling led to a "flight to safety" rally in the bond market which pushed benchmark Treasury yields lower and mortgage-backed security prices higher. Gains in the secondary market were large enough to allow lenders to reprice mortgage rate sheets for the better.

(see discription of "flight to safety" in post below)

Early this morning the Mortgage Bankers Association released the Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. The MBA survey covers over 50 percent of all US residential mortgage loan applications taken by mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and thrifts. The data gives economists a look into consumer demand for mortgage loans. A rising trend of mortgage applications indicates an increase in home buying interest, a positive for the housing industry and economy as a whole.

Today’s release indicated purchase demand continues to trend higher as the homebuyer tax credit gets closer to its April 30th expiration. Purchase applications increased +7.4% from last week while refinance applications fell 8.8%. It appears that most prospective home owners are looking to finance their home using FHA insured loan programs. AQ discusses a trend toward borrowers putting down less money and its relation to the housing recovery.

If you are hoping to take advantage of the up to $8000 tax credit for first time home buyers or the up to $6500 for repeat buyers, you better hurry. To qualify, you must be under contract by April 30 and your loan must close by June 30. It appears that there is no chance of this government stimulus to be extended

Reports from fellow mortgage professionals indicate the par 30 year conventional mortgage rate is holding in the 4.875% to 5.125% range for well qualified consumers. To secure a par interest rate on a conventional mortgage you must have a FICO credit score of 740 or higher, a loan to value at 80% or less and pay all closing costs including an estimated one point loan origination/discount/broker fee. If you are seeking a 15 year term, you should expect par in the 4.25% to 4.50% range with similar costs but lower FICO score requirements.

In accordance with the “lock at the price highs, float at the price lows” motto....I favor locking all loans closing within the next 30 days.

How Does The Fed Come Up With Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates are controlled by the action of rising and falling stocks & bonds. When stocks rise, investors take a "flight to safety."

A flight to safety happens when investors are nervous about owning risky assets like stocks, but do not want to miss out on earning a return on their funds, so they allocate money into risk-free U.S Treasury debt to provide a safe-haven AND an investment return. To remind readers, as benchmark Treasury yields fall, prices of mortgage-backed securities move higher, which allows lenders to offer lower mortgage rates. As Treasury yields rise, mortgage-backed security prices are led lower, which forces lenders to push mortgage rates higher.

I hope this helped everyone (esspecially those seeking a mortgage loan in the near future) understand how the Fed generates mortgage loan rates. This was just a cursory glance, if you have more questions feel free to leave me a comment here or e-mail me with your request.

MortgageSmith101@yahoo.com

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Figuring Out the Fed With Fred Mishkin (Video - MND)

I found this video this morning on one of my more frequented websites I visit every morning. I thought it it explained the Federal Reserve Bank tactics and their influence on mortgage rates, inflation and debt-control in the simplist way imaginable.











Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Hefner Help Saves Hollywood Sign (Entertainment)


Mortgage Rates On The Fence In The Days To Come

Mortgage rates bounced back and forth in a relatively tight range before going out at their highest levels of the week last Friday. Although prices of mortgage-backed securities managed to rally of their lows of the day, most lenders did not reprice for the better.

The only economic data we got today was the First Quarter Residential Vacancies and Homeownership Report. While vacancy rates are appearing to moderate, home ownership in the U.S. has declined to a level last seen at the beginning of the decade. The greatest decrease is among the youngest homeowners




Mortgage Rates



Current Mortgage Rates


Get Widgets




Reports from fellow mortgage professionals indicate lender rate sheets to be improved from Friday. The par 30 year conventional rate mortgage does remain in the 4.875% to 5.125% range for well qualified consumers though. To secure a par interest rate on a conventional mortgage you must have a FICO credit score of 740 or higher, a loan to value at 80% or less and pay all closing costs including an estimated one point loan origination/discount/broker fee. You may elect to pay less in closing costs but you will have to accept a higher interest rate.

When evaluating the risk/reward of floating, you have very little to gain by floating and a lot to risk. We have several high impacting events taking place this week which could pressure mortgage rates higher very quickly. With that in mind, if you need to decide on locking or floating in the next week or are within 15 days of closing, I would lock today. If you have a longer decision making timeline, I am floating on a day to day basis.

Monday, April 26, 2010

Is a FHA Loan Right For You?

After posting excerpts from a letter from a member of the FHA (Fair Housing Administration), I received quite a few e-mails asking questions about what exactly is a FHA loan. So, here are a couple of links that will help you understand if an FHA loan is right for you.
(info provided is for the state of California residents)

Here's some links to some of the FHA insured mortgage programs:

Section 203b Insured Mortgage

Section 203h Insured Mortgage for Disaster Victims

Section 255 Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM)

Section 203k Rehabilitation Mortgage

Energy-Efficient Mortgage Program (EEM)

Adjustable rate mortgages

Section 248 Indian Reservations and Other Restricted Lands

Title I Home Improvements

One of the more common FHA Loans

203(b) Mortgage Insurance

What is the purpose of this program?

To provide mortgage insurance for a person to purchase or refinance a principal residence. The mortgage loan is funded by a lending institution, such as a mortgage company, bank, savings and loan association and the mortgage is insured by HUD.

What are the eligibility requirements?

• The borrower must meet standard FHA credit qualifications.
• The borrower is eligible for approximately 96.5% financing. The borrower is able to finance the upfront mortgage insurance premium into the mortgage. The borrower will also be responsible for paying an annual premium.
• Eligible properties are one-to-four unit structures.


For More Information
Contact FHA approved lenders in your area.

$10,000 Tax Credit for New Home Buyers in California


Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger today returned to the La Ventana Homes project in Fresno where he kicked off his campaign to extend and expand the hugely successful homebuyer tax credit to sign legislation that will do just that. AB 183, authored by Assembly member Anna Caballero (D-Salinas) and Senator Roy Ashburn (R-Bakersfield), will provide a tax credit of up to $10,000 to Californians who are buying their first home or purchasing a brand new home. This legislation, part of the Governor’s larger California Jobs Initiative, will play a key role in getting our economy moving again by encouraging home ownership and stimulating job creation.

“I have been up and down the state pushing this important housing bill that will get people off the fence and into homes while creating jobs and stimulating our economy – and today I am proud to take action and put it into law,” said Governor Schwarzenegger. “Creating jobs is my number one priority and I am glad that I have been able to sign two job-creating bills in two days. I applaud the legislature for their great work and encourage them to keep it up and pass the remaining job-creating elements of my California Jobs Initiative.”


AB 183 was passed by the legislature on March 22 and gives the Franchise Tax Board authority to extend a total of $200 million in tax credits to California homebuyers; $100 million for buyers of new, unoccupied homes and another $100 million for first-time buyers of existing homes. The credit will be extended from May 1, 2010 to December 31, 2010. The tax credit will be available to buyers on a first-come, first-served basis and is applied in equal amounts over a period of three taxable years. To qualify, the buyer must not be a dependant and must purchase a home that does not belong to a relative.

Governor Schwarzenegger fought hard to extend and expand the homebuyer tax credit after its successful run in 2009. That $100 million tax credit, which was approved in February 2009, ran out after just four months with 10,659 Californians claiming the credit – increasing home purchases, jumpstarting building projects and boosting local economies. In fact, La Ventana Homes saw a 300 percent increase in sales when the tax credit went into effect.

FHA to the Rescue!!!


from a letter written to the Mortgage News Daily by Brian Montgomery Oct., 2009

There has never been a point in our nation’s history that better illustrates exactly why FHA and Ginnie Mae exist. During these uncertain economic times, their counter-cyclical role of ensuring adequate mortgage activity and liquidity has been necessary and vital.

FHA has saved close to one million sub-prime/Alt-A borrowers from possible financial ruin by allowing them to refinance into a safe and secure 30-year fixed rate mortgage. Another 2 million qualified borrowers (80% of them first-time homebuyers) have taken advantage of the declining house prices and historically low interest rates to purchase a home using FHA. FHA’s role has grown substantially from three percent of lending activity by dollar volume in 2006 to nearly 25 percent of all mortgages originated today. That massive uptick in volume occurred almost overnight beginning in spring 2008.

Through it all…. FHA has helped pump more than $400 billion of mortgage activity and liquidity into the market since 2008, while still managing to deliver a higher credit quality borrower whose average FICO score is 700.

One can only imagine how much worse our economy would be right now without the FHA. However, the growth of FHA in the past 18 months has understandably attracted a lot of attention. While the FHA did not take part in the housing boom, it is feeling its effects.

Reminder: FHA collects premiums from borrowers (revenue) and also pays out claims to lenders when loans go into default and foreclosure (outlays).

The FHA has undeniably tightened guidelines in an effort to help ensure a higher loan quality. Prospective borrowers must verify income and job history as part of a rigorous underwriting process.

As a reminder, I offer the following insight about the strategies the FHA is considering to ensure the market remains confident in the FHA’s risk management models:

* Tighten underwriting criteria
* Increase premiums
* Raise the down payment requirements above 3.5%
* Overlay a credit score cut-off

Looking forward it’s important for all of us to continue advocating for reforms that better ensure a vibrant, transparent, and sound mortgage marketplace. Current market conditions highlight the critical role of the private and public sectors in keeping mortgage credit flowing.

Rate Lock Advisory - Monday April 26th

I am predicting a decrease in rates this week to the same levels we saw them last Wednesday. If (or should I say when) they fall, I would suggest being in a position to lock in your loan.

DATE: Monday, April 26, 2010

TIME: 8:00 am PST

CHANGE (from last Monday): Improvement


*** The Fed News last week immediately dropped rates on Wednesday afternoon, however pricing worsened Thursday and Friday- still below last Monday’s update. Get in position to lock pending more market movement…

Rate Lock Advisory - Monday April 26th






Mortgage Rates



Current Mortgage Rates


Get Widgets




Monday's bond market has opened fairly flat despite an early stock rally. The stock markets are reacting favorably to the release of details of the Fed's plan for relieving banks of their bad holdings in mortgage related securities. The bond market is nearly unchanged from Friday's close, which will likely keep this morning's mortgage rates close to Friday's levels.


The National Association of Realtors announced late Friday morning that home sales rose this month, greatly exceeding analysts' forecasts. This report was expected to show a small incline in sales, meaning that the housing market was much more active than many had thought.

Stock market are looking to open the final week of April looking up after the benchmark S&P 500 added 2.1% last week. In terms of economic data, the week opens on a slow note. Although, Tuesday's home price index should be closely watched, Wednesday's monetary policy meeting for the Fed will make global headlines and 1st-quarter GDP late in the week will have broad implecations.

I would like to say that this may be a relatively calm week for mortgage rates, but as we have seen recently, a lack of important releases does not mean we will not see volatility in the markets and rates. Therefore, I recommend not letting our guard down, particularly if still floating an interest rate.

Friday, April 23, 2010

Mortgage Rates End Back and Forth Week at Highest Levels


Mortgage rates bounced around a tight range for most of the week. There wasn't much in the way of news to motivate movement in the first three days of the week. Although we did get several key earnings releases, the economics calendar was essential empty and the market's general tone reflected a lack of conviction. Rates were unchanged on Monday, rose modestly on Tuesday then recovered from weakness on Wednesday only to give it back positive progress on Thursday after the Treasury announced the terms of next week's debt auctions. This left rates a few bps higher (vs. Monday) heading into today.

Our week wrapped up with two sets of economic data and some unexpected headline news.

The bond market arose this morning to news that Greece had asked the European Union and the IMF to activate their financial rescue package. This request was seen by stock markets as a good thing as it seemed to signal the beginning of the end of a long, drawn out debate over whether or not Greece would be able to raise the funds necessary to pay their creditors. As a result, both European and U.S. stock markets rallied. This had the opposite effect on the U.S. bond market, traders sold positions in risk averse Treasuries in favor of buying stocks which pushed benchmark yields higher. Consequently mortgage rates moved up before the day even began. READ MORE

Home Buyer Tax Credit Extention

I've been getting a lot of questions about the particulars of the Home Buyer Tax Credit Extension. While I wish I could take credit for the abundance of information below, I can't. However, I can point you towards the source. I hope you find these resources useful.

The NAR has been all over the legislation. Below is a list of questions and links to the NAR's answers.

The Basics of the Extended Home Buyer Tax Credit 2009/2010

Who Qualifies for the Extended Credit?
Which Properties are Eligible?
How Much is Available?
How is a Buyer's Credit Amount Determined?
If a Buyer's Income Exceeds the Limits, Can they Still Get a Credit?
Can a Buyer Still Qualify If They Close After April 30, 2009?
Will the Tax Credit Need to Be Repaid?

Click Here for answers to these and other questions

The IRS has also updated their site to include information about the new legislation. HERE is a link.

also Click Here for NAR information on extended tax credit.

New Home Sales Show Signs of Life After Long Winter


The Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development today released New Residential Home Sales survey data for March 2010.

The Census Bureau collects new home sales based upon the following definition: "A sale of the new house occurs with the signing of a sales contract or the acceptance of a deposit." The house can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction, or already completed. Typically about 25% of the houses are sold at the time of completion. The remaining 75% are evenly split between those not yet started and those under construction.

From the release...

Sales of new single-family houses in March 2010 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 411,000.

We are now bouncing along right above record low levels. After an extremely slow winter, new home sales are back to the level seen when the first tax credit expired in November.

First of all, this was expected as the homebuyer tax credit is expiring at the end of the month. In order to qualify, homebuyers must sign a sales contract by April 30.

Second, I know this data seems to be great, but I cannot emphasize this enough though: we are coming off of record low month of activity. Even a modest uptick in New Home Sales will appear monumental on a relative basis. For example, if sales rose from 1 to 2 in March, the rise would be 100%. I

In times when housing supply/demand is in better balance, new home sales usually lead existing home sales regarding changes in the residential sales market by a month or two. In the current environment, I think the opposite will occur. Existing Home Sales will be a forward looking indicator for New Home Sales. The faster existing inventory is taken down, the sooner builders are likely to break ground on new projects.

If you missed it, I discussed the idea that "shadow buyers" are lurking on the sidelines as well how many mortgage applications the MBA may or may not be missing in their weekly survey.

Mortgage Rates Move Higher After Auction Announcement


Mortgage rates improved a few basis points yesterday, but only enough to recover loan pricing losses that occurred the previous day. A lack of meaningful economics data combined with a generally slow trading environment have kept mortgage rates in a tight range this week. Although benchmark Treasury yields rallied, mortgages haven't been able to keep pace.

To remind readers, as benchmark Treasury yields fall, prices of mortgage-backed securities move higher, which allows lenders to offer lower mortgage rates. MBS prices have moved higher lately, but have not kept up with improvements in the Treasury market, which is why mortgage rates have generally held to a stable range lately.

Our lackluster week of economic data came to an end today with several economic releases. First to discuss was a report on inflation, the Producer Price Index.

The PPI measures the changes in prices that manufacturers and wholesalers pay for goods during different stages of production. If businesses have to pay more for the materials they use to produce their widgets …they may be forced to pass along those additional costs to you…the consumer. During periods of bad economic conditions and high unemployment, producers find it difficult to pass along the higher prices to the end consumer. This makes consumer inflation reports of more importance than producer inflation. However; as stated before, inflation is one of the largest enemies of low interest rates so we must pay attention to any report on inflation as it can impact the markets.

This data provides three measures on the health of the labor market:

  1. Initial Jobless Claims: totals the number of Americans who filed for first time unemployment benefits
  2. Continued Claims: totals the number of Americans who continue to file for benefits due to an inability to find a new job
  3. Extended and Emergency Benefit: totals the number of Americans who have exhausted their traditional benefits and are now receiving extended and emergency benefits

Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 24,000 to 456,000 in the week ending April 17. Economists were expecting initial claims to fall to 450,000. Last week’s initial claims were revised better from the first reported 484,000 to 480,000. Continued claims fell 40,000 from a revised 4.686 million to 4.646 million. The number of Americans who have used up their traditional benefits and are now collecting emergency extended benefits also fell by 480,000 to 5.49 million. The data continues to indicate that unemployed Americans are still finding it difficult to land a job.

Our final report on the day provides reading on the strength of the housing sector. The National Association of Realtors(NAR) released their monthly Existing Home Sales report.

This data totals the number of existing homes, not new construction, in which a sale closed in the prior month. Many believe that until housing rebounds, it will be very difficult for our economy to sustain acceptable growth, this makes tracking home sales data much more important today than in past economic downturns. We have had three consecutive reports from the NAR indicating existing home sales declining. December’s report indicated a decline of -16.2%, January’s indicate a decline of -7.2% and last month’s report fell another -0.6%. This was quite troubling as the home buyer tax credit is still in effect and mortgage rates have been holding near historic lows. Economists surveyed prior to the release of March’s numbers expected this trend to end with an increase from last month’s 5.02 million annualized pace to 5.28 million.

The NAR reported existing home sales increased at a rate of 6.8% in March to a better than expected annualized pace of 5.35 million. The available supply of homes fell to an 8.0 months supply from February’s 8.5 month total and the median home price increased 3.7% to $170,700. If you have been hoping for an extension of the home buyer tax credit, that seems very unlikely. This was a strong report, all around. The NAR thinks this is the beginning of a broad based stabilization in housing.

Finally, the Department of Treasury announced the terms of next week’s debt offering. They will sell $44 billion 2 year notes, $42 billion 5 year notes, $32 billion 7 year notes, and $11billion 5 year TIPS notes for a total of $129 billion. All auctions amounts were as expected with exception of the 5 year TIPS offering, that was $1bn larger than the previous auction. The added supply of debt on the market pressured both treasury and mortgage yields higher. The Treasury rally that helped mortgage rates recover from the previous day's marginal weakness reversed course today. Once again we have taken one step forward only to immediately take one step back.

Reports from fellow mortgage professionals indicate lender rate sheet pricing to be worse today. Mortgage rates are slightly higher as a result. The par 30 year conventional mortgage rate does remain in the 4.875% to 5.125% range for well qualified consumers. There are a couple lenders offering 4.75% today. To secure a par rate on a conventional mortgage you must have a FICO credit score of 740 or higher, a loan to value at 80% or less and pay all closing costs including an estimated one point loan origination/discount/broker fee. If you are seeking a 15 year term, you should expect par in the 4.25% to 4.50% range with similar costs but lower FICO score requirements.

Following the strategy of “lock the price highs, float the price lows”, I favor locking all loans closing and funding within 30 days.

Housing Recovery Requires More Than Just Government Intervention


Earlier this week I gave an interview to a foreign news service that will ultimately be aired in Arabic. While I may not yet be fluent in that particular language, my responses translate into answers we've been grappling with in the housing industry for the last several years.

In responding to the reporter's question of whether or not the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) will be ultimately successful - one needs to realize that it isn't a one size fits all solution. It definitely is helping a certain segment of the population, and will benefit an even greater amount down the road. However there are a sizable number of potential homebuyers that will not qualify.

The current economic crisis, which the instability of housing markets definitely contributed to, will require more than just government intervention. The modification programs will definitely play a part in the recovery - don't get me wrong - but if we're to fully recover the private sector will have to play a role in it, and we'll need to have renewed confidence investing in the marketplace.

There have been tremendous efforts by both the Bush and Obama Administrations - as well as laws passed by Congress - to keep people who are drowning in late mortgage payments to remain in their homes. Foreclosures are also affecting renters at an increased rate, and the grim fact is that some people will still lose their homes, no matter what type of assistance is out there.

In the 1990's when we had a very healthy period of growth, the housing market by and large paralleled that era. In the next decade, when the housing market collapsed, so too did America's confidence in the overall economy, leading to the downward spiral we are currently experiencing. The sign that America's economic woes are behind us will be when the housing market rebounds. The two will be forever linked.