This blog/website is dedicated to the education and sophistication of all mortgage loan borrowers through-out our great nation. The more a borrower is informed about the loan process and how mortgage rates are developed, the better everyone's economic position will be.
Kevin L. Smith
Loan Consultant


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Wednesday, May 5, 2010

Rate Lock Advisory - Wednesday May. 5th - Happy Cinco de Mayo


Wednesday's bond market has opened in positive territory again following more weakness in stocks. The stock markets are extending yesterday's losses, but to a much lesser degree. The Dow is currently down 40 points and the Nasdaq down 18 points. The bond market is currently up 7/32, which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .250 - .375 of a discount point.

There is no relevant data scheduled for release today, so any afternoon revisions to mortgage rates will likely come from movements in stocks. If the stock markets move into positive territory, we may see bonds fall and mortgage rates move higher. If the major stock indexes move lower, afternoon improvements to rates may follow.

The Labor Department will release its 1st Quarter Productivity and Costs data early tomorrow morning. This information helps us measure employee productivity in the workplace. High levels of productivity help allow low-inflationary economic growth. If employee productivity is rapidly rising, the bond market should react favorably. However, a decrease could cause bond prices to drop and mortgage rates to rise tomorrow morning. It is expected to show a 2.4% increase in productivity.

We also will get weekly unemployment figures from the Labor Department early tomorrow. They are expected to say that 440,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This would be a decline from the previous week, but unless we see a large variance from forecasts this data likely will not have much of an influence on tomorrow's mortgage rates.

The big news of the week comes Friday when we will get April's monthly employment numbers. They are expected to show that the unemployment rate stood at 9.7% last month and that 187,000 new jobs were added to the economy. The higher the unemployment rate and the fewer number of jobs added, the better the news for bonds and mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Mortgage Rates Start Week Sideways. Busy Week Ahead


Mortgage rates last week benefited from nervous investor sentiments regarding the fate of Greece and Goldman Sachs. A lack of conviction to own risky stocks heading into the weekend led to a flight to safety rally in benchmark Treasuries which helped mortgage-backed securities and allowed lenders to offer slightly lower mortgage rates.

After bouncing back and forth in a tight range for the entire week, mortgage rates went into the weekend close to their best levels of the month (which really wasn't too different from what we have been seeing over the past 10 days.)

Over the weekend, the European Union and Greece announced that an aid package was put together to prevent Greece from defaulting on their national debt. This bailout was expected to “safeguard financial stability in the euro area as a whole”. This news ended up forcing traders to sell a portion of their "flight to safety" positions in Treasuries which pushed MBS prices lower at the open. Almost all of Friday's modest gains have been erased.

We have several economic releases to start the week. First report to hit the news wires comes from the Department of Commerce with the release of Personal Income and Outlays. A stronger consumer benefits the stock market while a weaker consumer benefits the bond market. This report gives us three readings on the health of consumers. The first is personal income which shows the monthly change in income that households receive from all sources. Next is consumer spending, which shows the monthly change in the amount of money consumers are spending on durable and non-durable goods and services. The final reading is the Personal Consumption Expenditure, a preferred read on inflation.

Rate Lock Advisory - Tuesday May. 4th


Tuesday's bond market has opened well in positive territory due significant stock selling. The stock markets are posting large losses with the Dow down 220 points and the Nasdaq down 74 points. This has helped boost bond prices, pushing the bond market up 14/32, which will likely improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point.

Today's only relevant economic news actually gave us unfavorable results. It showed that March's Factory Orders rose 1.3%, greatly exceeding analysts' forecasts. That indicates that the manufacturing sector was stronger than expected and can be considered bad news for bonds. However, the data is pretty much being ignored this morning as bonds have become a safe-haven from the volatility in stocks. If this continues into afternoon hours, I would not be surprised to see a downward revision to mortgage pricing later today.

There is no relevant data scheduled fro release tomorrow, so look for the stock markets to again be a heavy influence on bond trading and mortgage rates. If today's selling in stocks extends to tomorrow, we could see further improvements to mortgage rates. But if the major stock indexes rebound tomorrow, today's improvements to rates may be erased.

The Labor Department will release its 1st Quarter Productivity and Costs data early Thursday morning. This information helps us measure employee productivity in the workplace. High levels of productivity help allow low-inflationary economic growth. If employee productivity is rapidly rising, the bond market should react favorably. However, a decrease could cause bond prices to drop and mortgage rates to rise Thursday morning. It is expected to show a 2.4% increase in productivity.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Debating Bank Reform

Debating Bank Reform












Monday, May 3, 2010

6 biggest mistakes homebuyers make

Buying a home is the biggest purchase most people will ever make, yet many go into it blind. Here are the 6 most common -- and costly -- mistakes homebuyers make.


1. Not knowing your credit score

If you're even toying with the idea of buying a home, you must find out exactly what your FICO score is. If you find it is less than ideal, wage a systematic campaign to raise it. Too many borrowers ignore this step and get surprised when they get interest rate quotes.

Once you've pored over your credit history and corrected any errors, your next step is to pay down revolving debt balances to no more than 30% usage. That will help raise your score significantly.

Why does it matter?

The lower your score, the higher your costs of borrowing. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, for example, charge higher up-front fees to borrowers with credit scores below 740.

For a buyer with a credit score between 680 and 700, the fee comes to 1.5% of the mortgage principal. On a $200,000 mortgage, that adds up to $3,000. Someone with a 740 score pays nothing.

Lower-score borrowers also get saddled with higher interest rates, about 0.4 percentage point more for the below 700 borrower. That costs an extra $62 a month -- $744 a year -- on a $200,000, 30-year, fixed rate loan.


2. Buying a car before a house

Anytime consumers open new credit accounts -- credit card, auto loan, etc. -- their FICO score could drop, according to Craig Watts, a spokesman for Fair Isaac, the creator of FICO scores.

"Hence the admonition to not open other new accounts while your mortgage application is in process," he said.

A big purchase would use up a considerable proportion of a borrower's total credit limit, which results in a drop in the score. Lenders often continue to check credit scores in the weeks before closing.

"The lender will likely slam on the brakes if the applicant's credit scores have suddenly dropped below the minimum required for the requested loan rate," Watts said.


3. Skimping on home inspection

Buying a pig in a poke can cost buyers big bucks -- just when they can least afford it. So It's vital to find all the costly flaws before you buy.

Many homes on the market today are distressed properties -- foreclosures and short sales -- and that only increases the importance of good inspections, according to David Tamny, president of the American Society of Home Inspectors.

"The owners usually didn't have the money to keep up these homes," he said. "There's a lot of deferred maintenance."

A home inspection can find problems with the foundation, electrical, plumbing, roof, attic insulation, and heating and air conditioning. In some states, separate licensed inspectors offer mold or termite inspections.

Often homebuyers, who may be strapped for cash, stint on inspections and look for the cheapest way to go. That can lead to disaster.

"The cost of repairs far exceeds the cost of inspection," said Tamny.


4. No lawyer

Nearly everyone involved in a real estate transaction -- the seller, the buyer's real estate agent, the seller's agent and the mortgage broker -- has a vested interest in getting the deal done because they only get paid when the house is sold. So they may push a deal even if it's not in the best interest of the buyer.

One of the best defenses against making am expensive purchase you'll regret is to hire a real estate attorney -- even in cities where it's not standard practice. These professionals charge flat fees and their advice is objective.

It's nice to have someone on your side.


5. No contingencies

When signing a sales contract, buyers usually have to put up 1% to 3% in "earnest money," which they don't get back if they pull out of the deal except under certain conditions spelled out in the contract.

Sellers try to limit the grounds for canceling, and inexperienced buyers may sign contracts that don't include common exceptions, such as uncovering major problems during the home inspection, failing to obtain financing and failure of the house to appraise.

Failure to obtain financing is common these days because lenders have become very picky; underwriting is very strict.

Even if your mortgage company is still willing to finance your purchase, the house itself may be worth less than you've contracted to pay for it, and the lender will pull its approval.

With residential real estate markets still slow, sellers usually accept contingency clauses, but if they resist, it may be better to rethink the deal. Losing a deposit of $2,000 to $6,000 on a $200,000 home hurts.


6. Not budgeting for insurance

Don't underestimate insurance costs and fail to budget for them.

Many homebuyers don't understand just what is -- and what is not -- covered. Standard policies pay for theft and wind, fire, lightning, hail and explosion damage. Not covered is flooding, earthquake damage or problems caused by neglect of routine maintenance, according to Jeanne Salvatore, spokeswoman for the Insurance Information Institute, an industry-sponsored educational group.

"The most important thing is before you buy a home, find out what it will cost to insure it," she said. "Insurance needs to be calculated into the cost of owning a home. Unlike a mortgage, which you can pay off, you'll be responsible for the insurance costs forever."

For flood insurance, most buyers use the National Flood Insurance Program. Earthquake coverage may be available through a state authority or some private companies.

Depending on location, flood insurance can run into a lot of money. The cost of $250,000 worth of government flood coverage on the building and $100,000 of its contents can go as high as $5,714 in high-risk, coastal areas.

WHAT IS A BULL AND A BEAR MARKET?


In stock trading and investing there are bulls and bears. It sounds dangerous but it isn’t.

You often hear of the market being bullish or bearish. So what is a bull market and what is a bear market?


BULLS AND BEARS IN THE MARKET


A Bull Market

This is when the market showing is confidence. Indicators of confidence are prices going up, market indices like the Nasdaq go up too. Number of shares traded is also high and even the number of companies entering the stock market show that the market is confident.

These are bullish characteristics. If there is a run of bullish days then you may hear the market is a bull market. Technically though a bull market is a rise in value of the market of at least 20%. The huge rise of the Dow and Nasdaq during the tech boom is a good example of a bull market.


A Bear Market


A bear market is the opposite to a bull. If the markets fall by more than 20% then we have entered a bear market. A bear market is a market showing a lack of confidence. Prices hover at the same price then go down, indices fall too and volumes are stagnant. In a bear market people are waiting for the bulls to start driving the prices up again. However, a bear is a very tentative bull or a bull that is asleep.

Rate Lock Advisory - Monday May. 3rd

Monday's bond market has opened in negative territory following early stock strength. The stock markets are starting the week in positive ground after Greece accepted a bailout package that should help stabilize the country's financial system. The Dow is currently up 86 points while the Nasdaq has gained 14 points. The bond market is currently down 11/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point over Friday's morning pricing.

There were two reports released this morning that were relevant to mortgage rates. The first was March's Personal Income & Outlays that showed a 0.3% rise in income and a 0.6% increase in spending. Both of these readings matched forecasts, minimizing its impact on this morning's bond trading and mortgage rates. February's readings were revised higher than previously estimated, but due to the age of that data it also has not influenced today's rates.

The second report of the day was one of the more important releases of the week. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) posted their manufacturing index for April late this morning, announcing a reading of 60.4. This was slightly lower than forecasts but an increase from the previous month. This indicates that more surveyed manufacturers felt business improved during the month than last month. That can be considered negative for bonds, but since the reading did not exceed forecasts, its impact on the markets has been minimal.

March's Factory Orders data will be released at 10:00AM tomorrow, giving us a measure of manufacturing sector strength. It is similar to last week's Durable Goods Orders, except this report includes non-durable goods such as food and clothing. Generally, the market is more concerned with the durable goods orders like refrigerators and electronics than items such as cigarettes and toothpaste. This is why the Durable Goods report usually has more of an impact on the financial markets than the Factory Orders report does. Still, a larger decline than the 0.1% that is expected could push mortgage rates slightly lower. But, a sizable increase in new orders could lead to slightly higher mortgage pricing tomorrow.

Overall, I believe Friday will be the most important day of the week with the employment data being posted. It can easily erase the week's accumulated gains or losses in mortgage rates if it shows any surprises. The middle part of the week will likely be the calmest, but I still suggest proceeding cautiously if still floating an interest rate. This would be a good week to maintain contact with your mortgage professional if you have not locked a rate yet.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Friday, April 30, 2010

Rate Lock Advisory - Friday Apr. 30th

Rate Lock Advisory - Friday Apr. 30th

Friday's bond market has in positive territory after this morning's most important economic data gave us favorable results. The stock markets are also helping to boost bond prices with the Dow down 35 points and the Nasdaq down 15 points. The bond market is currently up 8/32, which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point.

The first of this morning's three economic reports was the most important of all of the week's data. The 1st Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) came in at an annual rate of growth of 3.2%. This was slightly below forecasts, meaning the economy grew at slower pace than thought during the first three months of the year. In addition, a key inflation reading within the data was just below forecasts also. These are fairly good results for the bond market and mortgage rates.

The second report was the 1st Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) that showed a 0.6% increase in employer costs for wages and benefits. This was just above the 0.5% increase that was expected, so this data can be considered negative for bonds. However, it was not enough of a variance to have much of an impact t on this morning's rates.

The last was the University of Michigan's update to their Index of Consumer Sentiment for April. They announced a reading of 72.2, which exceeded forecasts of 71.0. This indicates that surveyed consumers were more confident about their own financial situations than thought, which is believed to mean they are more apt to make large purchases in the near future. Again, bad news for bonds and mortgage pricing, but the most important data of the day was favorable for bonds and had led to this morning's buying.

I would not be surprised to see further stock losses and bond gains before the day ends. It seems the momentum for bonds remains strong and that stocks could be due for another drop. If this is accurate, we could see funds shifted into bonds and mortgage rates move even lower. Accordingly, I am a little less cautious towards mortgage rates than I was earlier in the week.

Next week brings us the release of several relevant reports, including two important ones Monday morning. Early Monday we will get March's Personal Income and Outlays data that will give us a measurement of consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. Later Monday morning, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will post their manufacturing index that tells us manufacturer sentiment about current business conditions. Both can move the bond market enough to affect mortgage rates, so Monday will be a busy day. Look for more details on next week's events in Sunday's weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Thursday, April 29, 2010

Rate Lock Advisory - Thursday Apr. 29th

Rate Lock Advisory - Thursday Apr. 29th


Thursday's bond market has opened flat despite early stock gains. The stock markets are showing sizable gains with the Dow up 110 points and the Nasdaq up 25 points. The bond market is nearly unchanged form yesterday's close, which means we will likely see a slight increase in this morning's rates due to the volatility late yesterday.

The Labor Department gave us today's only semi-relevant economic data when they posted last week's unemployment figures. They said that 448,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. That was close to expectations, so it had practically no impact on this morning's trading or mortgage rates.

Today's 7-year Note auction may impact bond trading and mortgage rates later today. The results of the sale will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, so any reaction will come during afternoon hours. If demand for the notes was strong, we could see bond prices rise and mortgage rates move lower later today. However, a lackluster interest could lead to bond selling and higher mortgage rates.

There are three reports scheduled for release tomorrow morning. The first is the preliminary version of the 1st Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This is arguably the single most important report that we see on a regular basis. The GDP is the sum of all products and services produced in the U.S. and is considered to be the best indicator of economic growth or contraction. I expect this report to cause major movement in the financial markets Friday and therefore the mortgage market also. Analysts are expecting to see an increase in output at an annual rate of 3.3%. A much smaller increase would be good news for mortgage rates. But, a stronger than expected reading would almost certainly cause stock prices to rise and bond prices to fall, leading to higher mortgage rates tomorrow morning.

The second report of the day is the 1st Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI), which tracks employer costs for wages and benefits. This gives us a measurement of wage-inflation. If it shows a large increase, we may see wage inflation concerns cause the bond market to fall and mortgage rates to rise. A smaller than expected increase would be good news for the bond market and mortgage pricing. Current forecasts are showing a rise of 0.5%.

The last is the University of Michigan's update to their Index of Consumer Sentiment for April. This report gives us an indication of consumer sentiment. I don't expect it to have a significant impact on bonds and mortgage pricing unless it varies greatly from forecasts. Current forecasts are calling for an upward revision to push the index to 71.0. This means that surveyed consumers were more optimistic about their own financial situations than they were earlier this month.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

When You Think You Have Run Short On Space In Your Home

A 24-Room Apartment in 344 Square Feet

Hong Kong architect Gary Chang, has managed to turn his tiny apartment into a mansion of sorts, comprising more than 20 rooms. The innovation he says could improve the lives of low income people around the world. Courtesy of Reuters.